Coal Price Index Forecast by a New Partial Least-Squares Regression

AbstractDeviation of coal price has great influence on growth of China's economic. Daily coal price indexes in Qinhuangdao were collected. Past twenty days were used to predict next day index. The principal components of twenty days were extracted. The function between output variable and components was fitted by linear, quadratic and exponential model. This improved traditional partial least-squares regression. Traditional method such as multivariate linear regression and polynomial regression were coming into comparing with our method. Improved quadratic partial least-squares obtained the smallest relative errors in mean and variance for ten reserved indexes. Those ten errors had minimum 0.3%, median 3.3% and maximum 9.7%. The ideal forecast precision certified that quadratic partial least-squares was suitable for coal price indexes

A Comparison of Bullwhip Effect under Various Forecasting Techniques in Supply Chains with Two Retailers

We examine the impact of three forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect in a two-stage supply chain with one supplier and two retailers. A first order mixed autoregressive-moving average model (ARMA(1, 1)) performs the demand forecast and an order-up-to inventory policy characterizes the inventory decision. The bullwhip effect is measured, respectively, under the minimum mean-squared error (MMSE), moving average (MA), and exponential smoothing (ES) forecasting techniques. The effect of parameters on the bullwhip effect under three forecasting methods is analyzed and the bullwhip effect under three forecasting methods is compared. Conclusions indicate that different forecasting methods lead to different bullwhip effects caused by lead time, underlying parameters of the demand process, market competition, and the consistency of demand volatility between two retailers. Moreover, some suggestions are present to help managers to select the forecasting method that yields the lowest bullwhip effect

Game between the third party payment service provider and bank in mobile payment market

With the innovation and integration of the Internet and the financial industry, the third-party payment market has developed greatly and has great potential. This paper discusses the duopoly game between third-party payment service providers and banks, which are the main participants in the mobile payment market. By constructing Nash game model, the conditions of equilibrium point, stability and bifurcation are analyzed. The effects of adjusting parameters and cooperation coefficient on business volume and profit are discussed. The conclusions are as follows: excessive investment will lead to unpredictable fluctuations in the market and fall into chaos; By strengthening cooperation, all participants in the mobile payment industry chain can improve business volume and profits while curbing chaos in the mobile payment market

The Chaos Dynamic of Multiproduct Cournot Duopoly Game with Managerial Delegation

Although oligopoly theory is generally concerned with the single-product firm, what is true in the real word is that most of the firms offer multiproducts rather than single products in order to obtain cost-saving advantages, cater for the diversity of consumer tastes, and provide a barrier to entry. We develop a dynamical multiproduct Cournot duopoly model in discrete time, where each firm has an owner who delegates the output decision to a manager. The principle of decision-making is bounded rational. And each firm has a nonlinear total cost function due to the multiproduct framework. The Cournot Nash equilibrium and the local stability are investigated. The tangential bifurcation and intermittent chaos are reported by numerical simulations. The results show that high output adjustment speed can lead to output fluctuations which are characterized by phases of low volatility with small output changes and phases of high volatility with large output changes. The intermittent route to chaos of Flip bifurcation and another intermittent route of Flip bifurcation which contains Hopf bifurcation can exist in the system. The study can improve our understanding of intermittent chaos frequently observed in oligopoly economy

Complex Dynamics Analysis for a Cournot-Bertrand Mixed Game Model with Delayed Bounded Rationality

A Cournot-Bertrand mixed duopoly game model is constructed. The existence and local stable region of the Nash equilibria point are investigated. Complex dynamic properties such as bifurcation and route to chaos are analyzed using parameter basin plots. The strange attractors are also studied when the system is in chaotic states. Furthermore, considering the memory of the market, a delayed Cournot-Bertrand mixed model is considered and the results show that the delayed system has the same Nash equilibrium and has a higher chance of reaching steady states or cycles than the model without delay. So making full use of the historical data can improve the system’s stability

Complex Dynamics in Nonlinear Triopoly Market with Different Expectations

A dynamic triopoly game characterized by firms with different expectations is modeled by three-dimensional nonlinear difference equations, where the market has quadratic inverse demand function and the firm possesses cubic total cost function. The local stability of Nash equilibrium is studied. Numerical simulations are presented to show that the triopoly game model behaves chaotically with the variation of the parameters. We obtain the fractal dimension of the strange attractor, bifurcation diagrams, and Lyapunov exponents of the system

Chaotic Characteristics and Application of Cooperative Game and Evolutionary Game

According to a dynamical multiteam Cournot game in exploitation of a renewable resource, a new dynamic Cournot duopoly game model with team players in exploitation of a renewable resource is built up in this paper. Based on the theory of bifurcations of dynamical systems, the stability of the system is studied and the local stable region of Nash equilibrium point is obtained. The effect of the output adjustment speed parameters and the weight parameter of the system on the dynamic characteristics of the system are researched. The complexity of the system is described via the bifurcation diagrams, the Lyapunov exponents, the phase portrait, the time history diagram, and the fractal dimension. Furthermore, the chaos control of the system is realized by the parameter adjustment method. At last, an evolutionary game as a special dynamic system is constructed and analyzed which is more useful and helpful in application. The derived results have very important theoretical and practical values for the renewable resource market and companies